Aftermath of 21st Century Panglong: Positive Symbolism Throws the Door of Earnest Negotiations Wide Open

[new administration’s] long-term peace negotiations that will solve decades-long conflicts,” he said.

He also once again stressed the federal Union that the armed ethnic organisations are demanding is not secession from the Union, but is a call for equality for the ethnic nationalities.

Position paper presentation

 Altogether some over 70 position papers were presented. But the bulk of it centre around federal union formation from different points of view.

The Tatmadaw and Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) MPs papers were fixed on nailing the assumption that the military-drawn, 2008 constitution has federal features and that with some amendment, a federal Union could be built. Other than that the military bloc and USDP were determined to reject the 8 states configuration mode – where the Bamar has to become an equal  state like all the others – and instead preferred the present setting of 14 states and regions, emphasizing that territorial-based federalism as the way to go.

The ethnic political parties and armed organizations although were for the distribution and coordination of power between the two tier states and federal government system, they still differed on how this could be achieved, implicating the scene even more with demands for new state-level administrations or upgrading their statuses, notably by Wa, Palaung and Pa-O ethnic groups.

The NLD position paper delivered by Dr. Tin Myo Win, Suu Kyi’s top peace negotiator, was said to be somewhere between the ethnic and military bloc proposals, emphasizing for harmonious states-federal government relationship, with a built-in checks and balances between the executive, parliament and judiciary.

The UNFC, as a group of four presenters also tabled a proposal for the reform and innovation of the present Tatmadaw to be more federal and in line with a federal union, putting it under the civilian government control, with equal participation and privilege in serving the union army, coupled with control of security forces in each respective, individual ethnic state. A ceiling of 0.05 percent armed forces strength not exceeding the country’s population was also proposed.

On the fourth, final day of convention, wrapping up the whole position paper presentation spectrum, Suu Kyi said: “When I looked at the presentation of groups over the past four days, I know who  is concentrated on things past, and who is focused on how to build our future state. But there is time yet for those stuck on the past to look forward to the future. It is very crucial that commit to bravely moving forward, not for the sake of an individual or an ethnic group, but for the sake of the entire Union.”

Speaking of criticisms of the conference organisation, she added, “But we don’t need to  fear having problems or set-backs – the threat is of pretending we do not have any problems. The most important thing is the ability to bravely move ahead, and work together on finding solutions,” she said, according to Myanmar Times.

Outlook and perspective

 The UPC-21CP that has been hastily convened to meet the deadline time-frame of Suu Kyi did stir up a lot of scepticism and doubtfulness. Also on the all-inclusiveness score, it has not been able to fulfil the government’s often promoted and determined  commitment. Other than that, the details in handling protocols like, sitting plan, disagreement over UNFC’s Chairman opening speech inclusion, failure to honour the rebel armies military ranks, and last but not least, the ongoing wars in Kachin and Shan States, which were intentionally heightened on the eve of the convention, were drawbacks that have to be taken into account.

The excluded three EAOs inclusion to the convention was put on hold to the last minute, as the government negotiators wouldn’t let them in, unless they committed themselves to promise, to give up their stance of armed struggle, which was also duly rejected.

BBC Morning Section on 31 August reported that Htun Myat Naing, leader of the  Arakan Army (AA), said that just saying pleasant words for the ears, without really meaning it is like, in reality, closing the door to peace process; for the government side is demanding conditions – like surrender –  that they could not follow.

Earlier the unelected, officially registered some 70 political parties that was offered only a handful of five representative quota to attend the convention by the government  also rejected the offer and declined to participate.

In addition, Hkun Htun Oo, a prominent ethnic politician, who is Chairman of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) and United Nationalities Alliance (UNA), also boycotted the convention for it was not all-inclusive.

The United Wa State Party/Army (UWSP/UWSA) on the second day pull out of the convention and returned home, due to the degrading treatment of the party from letting them wear the observer tags and treating its delegation as such.

The government has been quite enthusiastic with the Wa and people are at a loss on why this kind of glitches have to happen. However, the government later formally sent apology, stating that this as a technical failure on its side and in no way an attempt to degrade or belittle the delegation.

The Wa duly replied stating its backing of the convention and praised Suu Kyi’s life-long peace commitment, but pull out as there were no equality and transparency in convening the gathering.

Also regarding the allotment for opening speech where the signatory and non-signatory EAOs’ (UNFC) request to speak at the opening ceremony, the government side rejected it until the eleventh-hour, before giving in to the demand, as its Chairman N’Ban La threatened not to attend the opening ceremony but would tour the Naypyitaw city with his wife instead, if he was not allowed to speak.

Sao Hsur Hten, patron of the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA), was heard  complaining later that if the UNFC has to meet such difficulties even to deliver a speech, he didn’t like to think about the political negotiations.

And finally, it seems that it is almost becoming a tradition to roll out offensives, whenever meaningful peace process takes place. Reports keep pouring in, on the eve of the convention, about numerous firefights and armed clashes in Kachin and Shan States between the Burma Army and Kachin, Shan and Ta’ang troops, mostly due to the former’s military offensives. The Tatmadaw’s massive military reinforcement in Kachin state was said to be also ongoing, even during the convention, according to Kachin sources.

Prior to it, on the eve of the convention, the military MPs rejected the wordings of “democratic federal union”, when the union parliament doled out an endorsement of the UPC-21CP, as it was said to be against the 2008 military-drawn constitution. The charter doesn’t use or mention the word “federal”, but only “Union practising genuine, disciplined multi-party democratic system”. However the parliament endorsement was approved with the majority vote of 391 to 184.

But the positive side of the launching of this convention is the initiative of taking the first symbolic step, which is positive and hailed by international community and organizations like United Nations, European Union, United States, China, The Elders, an independent association of human rights advocates and so on. And even though the participation count of the EAOs were not all-inclusive, it did cover the whole 17 EAOs from a total of 21, a lot more than just 8 than during the tenure of Thein Sein regime. It could be said the partial participation has now become more inclusive, for big groups like UWSP, KIO and SSPP were involved and must be taken as a big plus. Maybe in the next round of talks, the three excluded EAOs could participate to become really all-inclusive.

Another good thing about the convention is the position paper presentation of all organizations that were invited. With this undertaking, the premises of negotiation and debate have been thrown wide open,  which some likened to the opening of a Pandora’s box . But open questions like how long it is going to take and what the outcome would be will remain unanswered for the time being.

Most important though would be in order to get all stakeholders on board, the soft power domination of the NLD, hard power possessed military rivalry must come to an end and level playing field must be created and worked out, if the peace process is to continue smoothly.

Finally, as Salai Lian Hmung Sakhoung of Chin National Front (CNF) has recently and correctly said that there are two common points among all the stakeholders, regardless of many different views and ideas. They are the desire for peace and  to build the country based on the principles of democracy and federal Union. We could only heartily agree on his assumption. But needless to say, whether these much valued aspirations by all the people will be achievable in the near future or not will solely rest on all the stakeholders’ ability and determination to deliver and on nobody else.

This article originally appeared on Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN) on September 4, 2016.