Dismay Over NCA-Signatories Growing

Because of the possible consequences and risk of losing public support if the Rakhine crisis is not handled well, the government seems to be paying more attention to the crisis in the western part of the country than in the internal armed conflicts in northern Kachin and eastern Shan states, especially in 2017.

It was obvious because after the second round of 21st Century Panglong conference in May last year, there were no major peace events or plans to have national-level political dialogues that were supposed to be held between the rounds of the union-level talks.

There were no peace talks between the government and armed ethnic groups that are still fighting government forces in Kachin and northern Shan states.

Both agendas of the Rakhine crisis and the peace process are crucial for the ruling NLD party, as its topmost priority is “Peace and National Reconciliation”.

However, there are signs that paying more attention to only one area while doing not much for the other is leading to a new uncertainty, if not handled well.

The peace process in Myanmar under the leadership of the ruling NLD is now being widely questioned — it has moved little since the new civilian government took power in 2016.

Post-election optimism is gradually falling down. As the ruling party terms enter into it’s second year, at least two armed ethnic organisations that have signed the National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), which is a precondition in joining the peace process, have began to question the ceasefire pact and the peace process itself.

Such expression of disappointment to the ceasefire pact and the peace process casts uncertainty and doubt about the upcoming third round of the 21st Century Panglong conference.

The conference is the platform where the government and the eight signatory groups are negotiating for peace based on political, social, security, social, economic, land and environmental issues, in a bid to end Myanmar’s seven decades of internal conflicts. It is scheduled to kick off on January 31.

In the last week of December, leaders of the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of Karen National Union (KNU), held a meeting to review the current peace process.

Commanders of KNLA expressed their concerns on a recent peace agenda proposed by Tatmadaw. They said the third round of peace conference should be suspended, according to sources.

The Tatmadaw security agenda, which was discussed in a meeting with the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee, an authorised body to oversee political dialogues, focused only on the DDR – a concept to disarm, demobilise armed groups and reintegrate ethnic armed groups into society.

This has drawn caution and criticism among ethnic politicians, peace observers and especially the armed ethnic groups that are currently negotiating peace with government.

If the DDR plan would be implemented, given that the Tatmadaw remains the country’s only armed force, then all armed ethnic organisations that are currently discussing peace will have to lay down their arms one day in the future.

In the framework for political dialogue, there are two topics under the security talking point. They are “matters relating to the national defense” and “security and integration matters”, which do not clearly outline the concept of DDR or Security Sector Reform, a wider rearrangement of security forces that is preferred more by ethnic armed groups.

Sai Kyaw Nyunt, an ethnic politician from Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, said the military move to push forward the DDR agenda in the upcoming peace conference has created burden for the civilian government’s efforts to move the peace process forward.

“At a time while there are no strong guarantees from the political dialogues, I think bringing this security issue of DDR has created confusion and concerns among the eight signatory groups,” he said.

He said it undermined the 30 points which were recorded during previous peace negotiations to define controversial terms, where the ‘security and integration matters’ is described as a dual process of DDR and SSR.

In addition, Joint General Secretary (2) of KNU Padoh Saw Hla Tun said the KNU’s stance on the security issue remain exactly the same as the one written in the framework of the dialogue.

“We don’t exactly tell DDR or SSR. This issue should be negotiated in a step-by-step manner,” he said.

However, he downplayed the concerns by saying that the KNLA will remain under the political leadership of the KNU, which he said would continue to engage with governments in peace negotiation.

Another disappointment for the signatory groups is the government’s ban on public consultations that the groups want to hold prior to national-level political dialogues.

For instance, the Tatmadaw blocked public consultation talks planned to be held statewide by the Restoration Council of Shan State ahead of Shan ethnic-based national-level talk in Larng Khur town from Jan 12 to 14.

The group in a statement released said the Tatmadaw was making it impossible for the people to freely and democratically express their will and to fully discuss their opinions.

While meeting in December to prepare for the upcoming third round of 21st Century Panglong conference, signatory groups called on the government to support their efforts to have public consultations, which they said was important to reflect the public opinions.

The signatory groups are now meeting in Chiang Mai to discuss the matter. General Saw Mutu Say Poe, the leader of KNU in his speech yesterday to mark the opening of the conference clearly expressed concerns that there is a difference in the understanding of national-level dialogues between them and the government.

The signatory groups’ rising frustration over the peace process is worrying for the civilian government which cannot control the military over defense and security issues as the government struggles to attract more new groups to sign the NCA in order to make the peace process more inclusive.

Speaking about his views on the current peace process, Sai Wansai, a Shan political observer, said the Tatmadaw and the NLD-government want a unitary system with the minimum devolution of political power.

He also said the ruling NLD and the Tatmadaw need to have a common understanding on the ongoing peace process.

“It seems that if the RCSS will not be tabling any inputs and will only be there for the sake of being there and the KNU would be going there without KNLA backing, the upcoming third 21st Century Panglong Conference will be a meaningless gathering,” he said.