The Seven Obstacles to Peace

Not surprisingly, issues related to the NCA were high on the agenda at a meeting in Nay Pyi Taw on May 12 of the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee. The tripartite panel, comprising representatives of the government and the Tatmadaw, members of political parties and signatories of the NCA, is chaired by State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

Government spokesperson U Zaw Htay told reporters after the meeting that the UPDJC was prepared to allow non-signatory groups to attend the second 21st Century Panglong peace conference as participants if they commit in writing to sign the NCA.

He was also quoted as saying it had been agreed to allow non-signatories to attend as “special guests”.

One of the most significant decisions at the UPDJC meeting was an agreement that the states and regions should be able to draft their own constitutions. Zaw Htay said the issue would be on the agenda at the peace conference.

Colonel Hkun Okker, a leader of the Pa-O National Liberation Organisation, hailed the decision on constitutions. “This has never happened before in Myanmar’s history, but we got it today,” he told reporters after the meeting.

U Min Zin, the executive director of the Institute for Strategy and Policy Myanmar, said the move on state and regional constitutions could encourage some UNFC members to sign the NCA.

“It will be interesting to see whether the New Mon State Party and the Karenni National Progressive Party sign the NCA because of the move on constitutions,” he told Frontier.

2. Existing ceasefires

Another big challenge to an inclusive peace process is the groups that are opposed to signing the NCA on the grounds that they have already signed bilateral ceasefire agreements with previous governments.

These groups include the United Wa State Party and its armed wing, the United Wa State Army, one of the country’s most powerful ethnic armed organisations.

In late February, the UWSP hosted a meeting of these groups at its headquarters at Panghsang, on the border with China in northeastern Shan State, to discuss a paper it circulated ahead of the event that amounted to a rejection of the current peace process structure.

The meeting, which pointedly took place when the second 21st Century Panglong conference was originally scheduled, was also attended by another of the most powerful ethnic armed groups, the Kachin Independence Army, as well as the SSPP-SSA(North), Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, known as the Kokang group, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.

A statement issued after the meeting reaffirmed opposition to a process based on the NCA and insisted on negotiations linked to previous bilateral ceasefire accords.

At the time, the KIA was a member of the UNFC. However, there have been unconfirmed reports that the KIA resigned from the UNFC in a letter dated April 29. Another indication of differences within the UNFC has been the unconfirmed reports that the SSPP/SSA(North) was prepared to sign the NCA.

However, other groups at the Panghsang meeting have remained firm in their stand against the NCA.

They include the TNLA whose vice chairman, Tar Jode Jar, told Frontier the group backs the approach taken by the UWSP.

Zaw Htay has made clear that the opposition of the TNLA, AA and MNDAA to signing the NCA meant that they would continue to be excluded from the peace process. The government excluded the three groups from signing the NCA and they were not invited to the first 21st Century Panglong conference.

Min Zin said the KIA, which is involved in a military alliance with the TNLA, MNDAA and AA that has launched coordinated attacks against government targets in northern Shan, was also moving closer to the stand taken by the UWSP.

3. A different direction

Another setback for the peace process has involved the effort to encourage as many ethnic armed groups as possible to participate, if permitted to do so, in the political dialogue process provided for under the NCA.

Official records show that of the seven meetings to discuss a framework for political dialogue that have occurred since the NLD government took office more than a year ago, non-signatory groups have attended only two of the gatherings.

This raises the possibility that non-signatory groups could raise objections in future to the way the political dialogue is being conducted. However, no major criticism has been heard so far from non-signatory groups to the implementation of this element of the peace process. It involves holding national-level political dialogues in the states and regions and sending the results to working committees and the secretariat of the UPDJC, which makes  selections that are submitted to the 21st Century Panglong conferences.

4. Keeping promises

The national-level political dialogues launched after the first 21st Century Panglong conference that ended early last September have generally run smoothly. However, there has been discontent in some areas where the dialogues have not yet been permitted, such as Rakhine and Shan states.

The states and groups that have held the dialogues are Kayin (Karen National Union, Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, KNU/KNLA Peace Council), Shan (RCSS/SSA-South, Pa-O National Liberation Organisation) and Chin (Chin National Front). Dialogues in the regions have been held in Bago and Tanintharyi.

Civil society groups also have input to the peace process, and the first national CSO Forum in Nay Pyi Taw in late February was asked by the UPDJC to discuss humanitarian support, environmental conservation and resource-sharing.

Organisers of the event, attended by 540 representatives from 300 organisations, were critical of the restrictions set by the UPDJC for the forum, at which participants discussed topics ranging from land grabs and internal conflict to constitutional reform.

“When we meet with people in the field, it is not appropriate to restrict them to discuss certain topics,” U Thwin Lin Aung, a member of the forum organising committee, told a news conference after the event.

Moreover, the UPDJC will not discuss security, but only issues related to politics, social affairs, the economy and land issues during other national level political dialogues.

“The problems will turn out to be more complicated

[if we talk about more issues]. That is why a negotiating team has been set up by the UPDJC,” said U Hla Maung Shwe, a secretary of the UPDJC.

At its May 12 meeting, the UPDJC agreed that further discussion was needed on the relationship between politics and religion before it could be negotiated at a 21st Century Panglong peace conference.

Zaw Htay said it was not the appropriate time to discuss such a sensitive issue.

“We cannot allow it to be discussed during the national-level political dialogues and at the conference, which will be attended by 700 people,” he said.

The six topics approved by the UPDJC for discussion at the conference focus on politics, the economy, society, security, land and the environment under a future federal democratic Union.

5. Conference rules

Participation in the next peace conference is also emerging as a contentious issue.

The government’s insistence that only non-signatory groups that make a commitment to sign the ceasefire will be able to attend would appear to rule out participation by most of the groups that attended the February meeting hosted by the UWSP, assuming that any of them would want to take part.

There has also been disagreement over representation at the conference. It will be attended by representatives of the government, MPs, Tatmadaw, ethnic armed groups and political parties, but there have been calls for potential participants including academic Min Zin and pro-democracy activist U Ko Ko Gyi to take part.